• Accounting Systems
  • Cash Flow Processes
  • Advisor Coordination
  • Budgeting & Forecasting
  • Production & Operations
  • Banking & Capital
  • Strategic Financial Planning
  • Risk Assessments
  • Revenue
  • Operating Rhythm
  • Succession or Exit Planning
  • Readiness & Attractiveness
  • Price/Multiple
Summit Insights
Dec, 23

How a Data-Driven Approach Can Help You Make the Most of the 2024 Recession


ITR Economics is forecasting a mild recession for 2024. While many businesses may have started to feel the pressure from the economy slowing down, that does not necessarily mean they are currently in a recession phase. With the wrong information, executives could make wrong business decisions today that could hurt their company more once they officially enter a recession. ITR Economics and FocusCFO are here to make sure you have the correct insights and direction to help you make the most of 2024.

Find Out Which Business Cycle Phase Your Company Is In

Too many business leaders, unfortunately, focus their attention on misleading news headlines. At ITR Economics, however, they are all about data, and data is unbiased. As covered in their popular Trends Report™ subscription, US Industrial Production is a key macroeconomic metric that provides insight into how the US economy is performing. However, individual companies, industries, and markets can move through the business cycle on their own timing.

One way they interpret how key industries go through the business cycle is by thinking of each economic segment as a separate railcar on a train. For example, the housing construction industry, one of the leading railcars, is starting to see growth in Phase, A, Recovery. Retail sales, meanwhile, are currently in Phase C, Slowing Growth; the retail sales railcar is toward the end of the train.

Housing will continue to progress through Phase A, Recovery, and eventually take a turn along the train tracks. It will be some time before retail sales reach those points. Similarly, while US Industrial Production is currently in Phase C, Slowing Growth, and is soon to enter Phase D, Recession, that does not mean your company is at the same point in the business cycle.

Incorporating ITR Economics’ methodology into your business planning and calculating the rates-of-change for your data will not only enable you to pinpoint exactly which business cycle phase you are in, but also where you are heading in the future. This knowledge will help you plan most effectively.

Economic Growth in 2025

Knowing which business cycle phase your company is in is important for many reasons, especially when it comes to perfecting your business strategy. ITR Economics provides clear Management Objectives™ for each business cycle phase. Each Management Objective is a piece of actionable advice for a specific business cycle phase and is part of a winning playbook to help you make the right decisions at the right times.

By making the right moves now, when business is slowing down, your team will be fully prepared to make the most of the economic growth following this mild recession. With the proper preparation, your company will be ready to hit the ground running and capitalize on the opportunities ahead of you, all while your competition is struggling to catch up.

Consider a Fractional CFO to Increase Your Company’s Bottom Line

The best data and insights are useless without the right people behind the scenes. But not every company can hire the people they need full-time in order to maximize growth. That is what makes FocusCFO a strong partner when looking toward future business opportunities.

To learn more about how a Fractional CFO can work with your leadership team to take economic insights and create an actionable plan for your business, schedule a complimentary consultation.

FocusCFO is proud to partner with ITR Economics to bring economic insights to our clients and partners. ITR Economics is the oldest, privately-held, continuously operating, economic research and consulting firm in the US, and is a renowned provider of accurate sales and industry forecasting services.